Two Days Out, Canada Election 2025: The Conservatives Are Getting Desperate...
Read Episode 129 of The Bill Kelly Podcast
As I write this, there are less than two days to go before the rest of Canada casts their votes, and the question Canadians are answering isn’t just who we want in charge—it’s what kind of leadership we believe this country needs right now. This election was supposed to be a cakewalk for Pierre Poilievre, carried on a wave of anti-Trudeau sentiment. But then Mark Carney stepped into the picture—and everything changed. The narrative shifted, the numbers stabilized, and one thing has become increasingly clear: Canadians are looking for a leader they can actually trust.
The polling numbers—while inherently fluid—have remained remarkably consistent throughout this campaign. The Liberal Party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, is maintaining a slight but steady edge over the Conservatives. More significantly, when Canadians are asked who they believe is best suited to serve as prime minister, Carney enjoys a commanding lead over Pierre Poilievre—often by double digits. This is not an isolated trend. It has persisted since the early days of the campaign, suggesting something more enduring than a fleeting political mood.
A Crisis of Trust
The fundamental challenge for the Conservatives is not merely a polling deficit—it is a trust deficit. From the outset of his leadership, Pierre Poilievre has struggled to connect with a majority of Canadians. His political base remains fervent, but outside that circle, he faces deep skepticism.
Historically, Poilievre's greatest political asset has been the widespread fatigue with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. That anger and disillusionment were expected to propel Poilievre into office. But Carney’s emergence has complicated that equation. Carney represents a credible, experienced alternative—one who cannot be easily dismissed by political caricature or hyper-partisan attacks.
And now, as the campaign enters its final days, Conservative messaging has become noticeably different. Recent advertisements refrain from even mentioning Poilievre’s name—a remarkable strategic decision that suggests internal polling may be telling party insiders what national numbers already hint at: the Conservative leader remains unpopular with the broader electorate.
The Shadow of Donald Trump
This election is unfolding in a geopolitical climate where the Trump brand of politics continues to cast a long shadow—not only over the United States but increasingly over Canada as well. The U.S. president recently reasserted his unfounded and inflammatory claims about Canada, including the absurd notion that American taxpayers “subsidize Canada”. His rhetoric is dangerous, disconnected from fact, and intended to inflame.
This is not the first time Trump has taken aim at Canada, nor will it be the last. And while most Canadians would hope for a leader who would push back forcefully on such disinformation, Poilievre has consistently chosen a cautious, almost evasive posture. His reluctance to denounce Trumpism is understandable only when one considers how much of his political support draws inspiration from it.
Canadians should expect our political leaders to respond clearly and forcefully. But Poilievre hasn’t. He’s ducked, dodged, and downplayed Trump’s rhetoric—because he knows too many of his supporters admire it.
As pollster David Coletto noted, Poilievre could shift perceptions by simply disavowing Trump’s worldview. But he won’t. Doing so risks alienating a segment of his base that openly embraces American-style populism—regardless of what it means for Canada.
The Carney Attacks
With few options left, some of Poilievre’s supporters have turned to disinformation. Social media is awash with unfounded accusations and distortions about Carney’s career, including false claims about his leadership at the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. His association with the World Economic Forum is now being portrayed in conspiratorial terms, despite the fact that former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper not only attended but praised the same organization.
The hypocrisy is staggering. As is the recent attempt by Harper to suggest that Carney was his “employee”—an assertion that fundamentally misrepresents the independent role of the Bank of Canada governor. The Bank of Canada does not “work for” the Prime Minister. It is a reminder of just how far some political actors are willing to go to rewrite history.
Carney’s career, by contrast, speaks for itself. He steered Canada through the 2008 global financial crisis with steady leadership and respected judgment. He brought that same expertise to the United Kingdom during his time with the Bank of England. These are not partisan achievements. They are facts.
Populism in Name, Not in Practice
Poilievre’s populist image also warrants scrutiny. Despite his anti-elite rhetoric, Poilievre has spent his entire adult life in elected office. He has never worked in the private sector, never managed a payroll, and never been responsible for balancing a budget beyond parliamentary expense accounts. Notably, he incurred higher travel expenses as opposition leader than Prime Minister Trudeau—a point worth considering as he continues to position himself as a fiscal hawk.
This is not to suggest that career politicians lack merit. But experience must be measured by more than political longevity. It must be evaluated by the quality of judgment, the integrity of action, and the consistency of values. On those measures, the contrast between Carney and Poilievre could not be clearer.
Why It Matters
It is easy, especially in a noisy political climate, to become cynical. Many assume that anyone entering public life must have a hidden motive—that a successful figure like Carney must be seeking power or profit. But such skepticism often says more about our current political culture than about the candidates themselves.
In reality, most people who enter public life do so because they believe they can make a difference. Carney has nothing to gain financially from public service. He has already achieved international success. His decision to return to Canada and offer his experience at this moment in history should be seen for what it is: an act of public service, not self-interest.
The Stakes
This Monday, Canadians will decide what kind of country we want to be. We are not voting in a vacuum. Around the world, we have seen democratic backsliding, populist authoritarianism, and the erosion of institutions that safeguard individual rights and civil discourse. We must not take for granted the relative strength of our own democratic institutions.
We don’t need perfection. We need competence. We need integrity. And we need leaders who understand both the complexity of modern governance and the importance of listening to dissenting voices. A government that cannot tolerate disagreement is not a democracy. It is a warning sign.
As I’ve said before: I would rather disagree with my government than fear it.
The choice before us is stark—but it is also clear.
On Monday, vote.
WATCH THIS PODCAST EPISODE FOR MORE IN DEPTH ANALYSIS:
🇨🇦 FURTHER READING
FIND OUT YOUR VOTING STATION AND ACCEPTABLE IDENTIFICATION (Even if you don’t have your voting card or an ID card with your address, you can still vote!):
Most Canadians feel as safe or safer than 10 years ago, Nanos poll finds. Conservative voters are another story.
CBC News Poll Tracker
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
Read the Full Transcript of Donald Trump’s ‘100 Days’ Interview With TIME
https://time.com/7280114/donald-trump-2025-interview-transcript/
Canadians more likely to trust Carney to keep campaign promises than Poilievre: Nanos survey
Opinion | All Pierre Poilievre had to do was strongly oppose Trump. This is why he couldn’t easily do so (By: David Coletto)
Harper Government Leads by Example at World Economic Forum
WATCH: PIERRE POILIEVERE PRAISES THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM!
https://crier.co/watch-pierre-poilivere-praises-the-world-economic-forum/
Presiding Officers and House Officers – Summary of Expenditures
https://www.ourcommons.ca/proactivedisclosure/en/house-officers
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