Liberal / NDP Divorce Doesn't Necessarily Mean an Election is Imminent
It was really a matter of "when", not "if".
Truth be told, it really didn’t come as a great surprise when Jagmeet Singh announced that he was “tearing up” the supply and confidence agreement that his NDP and the Trudeau Liberals had concocted. Most political observers knew that Singh would have to bail out of the deal before the next federal election, so it was really a matter of when, not if, he would pull the plug.
Some pundits have concluded that the end of the deal spells the end of the Trudeau government; the theory being that without the committed NDP support, the government would surely fail to survive the next non-confidence motion that an overly anxious Pierre Poilievre will certainly introduce when Parliament resumes.
Poilievre must be downright giddy at the prospect of riding his popular standing in the latest polls to a decisive election victory and vanquishing Justin Trudeau to the political netherworld!
But, not so fast, Skippy!
That scenario may be plausible, but not probable for a few very important reasons.
First of all, Singh has not committed to voting against the government if and when a non-confidence motion is introduced. The NDP may no longer be bound to support the government, but they may very well continue to support it if they can wrangle a few more programs from their NDP wish list to be included in future Liberal legislation.
After all, Singh has been languishing in public opinion polls and taking a lot of heat from within his own party for the deal with Trudeau. Just like the Prime Minister, Singh could use a few more political wins under his belt to save his precarious position as leader.
And let’s not forget the role that the Bloc could play in this game of political skulduggery. The Liberals only need the support of one of the opposition parties to survive a confidence vote, and Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has been known to pause his disdain for the Trudeau Liberals if he can cut a deal to enhance his party’s standing in Quebec.
It’s all speculation at this point, but one thing is clear: the Liberal/NDP marriage is over, and it was clearly an acrimonious split. That precarious partnership may have breathed life into this Trudeau government, but the harm it has done to Trudeau and Singh’s political careers may be fatal!