Justin Trudeau; Should he stay, or should he go?

He's been counted out so many different times, and somehow, someway, he always ends up back as Prime Minister.

As we look forward to 2024 on the Canadian political scene, the question that seems to dominate all of the conversation is quite simply, will he or won't he? The “he” in question, of course, is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The “will he or won't he?” refers to the question on every frustrated progressives mind—Will he step down as the Liberal Party leader?

Which is an interesting question in and of itself. Some would actually take it to the next level and say, will he step down as Prime Minister, dissolve parliament and go to an election? I think there are two chances of that happening… slim, and none. No political leader would willingly give up power without a fight, and I count Justin Trudeau in that generality as well. It's not going to happen in a confidence vote.

Even if the NDP do decide to walk away from their agreement with the Liberals prematurely, I don't think that's going to lead to an election. And I don’t think the NDP will take advantage of their slim opportunity to do so, at this stage. Jagmeet Singh will simply say, “We'll judge each piece of legislation as it comes up.” He doesn't want an election. His party is woefully behind in third place in the polling and, the opportunity for them to grow simply isn't there now. So let's set that aside and talk about the Liberal leadership, AKA the Prime Minister, since of course they are the governing party, at this present time.

Many of my colleagues in the podcast world, and of course in broadcasting, have speculated that it's about time for Justin Trudeau to take that walk in the snowstorm. Of course, his own father, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, made his decision many years ago to step aside as Liberal leader while walking in the blizzard on a very windy January night in Ottawa. There, he said he made his decision about what he was going to do with his political future. And we all know the history of that. Justin Trudeau, is he going to follow in his father's footsteps in that regard? I think not, for a variety of reasons. And let's look at some of those right now and talk about the implications of that.

First of all, he has adamantly stated in a number of interviews, whether it's in the hallways just outside of parliament buildings or in these yea-end interviews, that he is not going to step down. And whether you like Justin Trudeau or despise him, (and there's a lot of people in both those camps)… The fact of the matter is, this guy has faced a number of elections, and he's been the underdog every time. Yet, every time, he has won.

Now, I know you can argue and say, yeah, but he only won a majority vote once. But he's still the Prime Minister and that's what it comes down to. So anybody, whether it's Pierre Poilievre or anybody else looking at the political scene in this country, who takes Justin Trudeau lightly enough to assume that we can just blow him out of the water … Look at the record here! And that's not to suggest I'm supporting or endorsing him. People that follow my podcast and many years, of course, as a broadcaster in this country, know that I'm not a fan of Justin Trudeau, and never have been.

I've had some serious concerns about the fashion in which he governs, and God knows we could spend hours talking about some of his personal foibles, but the fact is, he keeps winning elections. He's been counted out so many different times, and somehow, someway, he always ends up back as Prime Minister. Now, I'm not suggesting that's gonna go on and on forever, but...

There is a track record there that needs to be, I think, put on the table when we're having those discussions. And in that regard, there's another element to this too, that I think a lot of my colleagues are loathe to get into. If you're a Liberal supporter, it might be the worst case scenario if they all of a sudden had to pick another leader.

Because historically, they don't do a very good job of that. They just don't seem to have their heads together or their act together when it comes to reading the tea leaves here in this country. Time and again, the party shows us that they don’t have an understanding of what kind of person we need as a leader.

The Liberals governed for the longest time, of course. And sure, you could argue that it's because the right wing political faction in this country was split between the reform party and the conservative party, splitting the vote constantly. But, in 2006, the new conservative party under Stephen Harper united the right and they eventually did form a minority government. But that left the liberals with a choice. That election night in early 2006, Paul Martin stepped down as leader of the Liberal Party after his crushing defeat by Stephen Harper, so the Liberals had to choose a new leader. Now, as I said, they'd been governing for quite some time and there were quite a few people that were interested in that. You know the names by now, of course.

Bob Rae, the former Premier of the province of Ontario, stepped into the race. Michael Ignatieff, Bob’s buddy from U of T back in their undergrad days, and many others jumped in. However, in a convention in Montreal, they ended up choosing Stefan Dion. It was clearly the wrong man at the wrong time for the Liberal Party. He made so many mistakes as leader of the opposition, and not the least of which was the fact that he allowed Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to define him as somebody who was incompetent and not really ready for primetime. Which he proved, time and time again. And that is a cardinal sin in politics. You never let the opposition define who you are, or what you are. And it seems like the Liberals have been blaspheming ever since.

So my concern here now, at least from the liberal standpoint, is… Will they do it again? Or, have they learned their lesson? Unfortunately, I think not. I know that power struggles occur within political parties, and oftentimes the infighting and rhetoric goes on publicly, but backroom deals and the things that are decided in those backrooms can have a major influence over that. In this particular case, of course, there have been some rumours of dissent within the Liberal Party.

People are whispering among the ranks that maybe it's time for their leader to step down. And there are a few who’ve made some noise to suggest that, “Well, if that were the case, I might be interested in running…”Anita Anand got demoted to another position for alluding to this, and a couple of others who had those ambitions as well, which was a clear message from the Prime Minister to say, “I'm in charge, here. Anybody who even thinks of challenging my authority is going to be in for the same fate.” So I guess the message was received. But still, rumours that the Prime Minister will step aside in 2024 continue to echo throughout the halls of Parliament.

The reality here is, there's a fatigue level with Justin Trudeau right now, not just with Canadian voters, but within the Liberal party. Will that put enough pressure on Mr. Trudeau to finally step down? Maybe into a life raft, so he can float off into oblivion, or pivot into a mystery novel author, or start a podcast, or whatever else former politicians do? I don't think so. I think in his mind, he is hellbent on going down with his ship. Or, to rise like an albatross and guide the party back to safe harbour.

I don't know if all the good news they're predicting for 2024 is going to change voters minds at this time. I do know this much, though: The Canadian voter is in a very precarious position right now. Sure, we might know what we don’t want. But we don’t know what we do want, either, and we definitely don't know how to get there.

Luckily, we’ve got a little time to figure it out. I still think we won’t be heading to the polls until 2025. And I’m betting when that does occur, it is still going to be Pierre Poilievre versus Justin Trudeau. At least, that’s the way I see it.

What do you think?