Are Conservatives turning against their leader? And why are we not talking about this warning to Canadians?
Written edition of Episode 108, The Bill Kelly Podcast.
As we approach the Canadian federal election on April 28th, 2025 political dynamics are shifting rapidly. In this written edition of the Bill Kelly Podcast, we examine the current landscape of the race, particularly the emerging competition between the Liberal and Conservative parties, the growing influence of Mark Carney, and the mounting challenges facing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. If you prefer listening or watching political commentary, the information provided in the following article is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and more.
Election Countdown: A Two-Party Race
With only one month left until Canadians head to the polls, the race is heating up. Recent polling data indicates that the Liberal Party has gained substantial ground, widening their lead over the Conservative Party. Just a few months ago, the Liberals were trailing by approximately 25 points, but now they seem poised for a potential majority government. Meanwhile, the NDP’s support continues to erode, with many voters shifting their allegiance to the Liberals.
However, as I have often said, political complacency can be a dangerous mindset. It’s a trap that many candidates, across all parties, have fallen into over the years. The common belief that victory is assured, especially with favorable polling, can lead to a lack of voter engagement. The key to success remains ensuring voter turnout and continued commitment to the political process. Canadians must remain focused and vote on election day.
I believe this time, unlike in previous cycles, there is a palpable sense of urgency among the electorate. The issues at stake are far too significant to be left to chance, which is why voters are paying attention earlier and making decisions sooner. This heightened awareness is reflected in the shifting numbers and the growing support for the Liberals. Canadians are evaluating their options thoughtfully and are beginning to decide who is best equipped to navigate the country through these uncertain times.
Mark Carney: A Steady Hand Amid Controversy
One of the most compelling figures in this election is Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Carney has been widely recognized for his calm, measured leadership and his experience in managing economic crises. His candidacy has drawn both support and scrutiny, particularly from Conservative strategists who are working to undermine his credibility.
I’ve noted in previous podcasts that misinformation campaigns aimed at discrediting Carney are already in motion, some even originating from foreign entities, including Russia. This is no surprise, given the stakes of this election. However, I believe Carney has done nothing wrong. He has adhered to the rules governing his financial interests, including his use of blind trusts, and if there were legitimate concerns about his financial dealings, they should be addressed directly. Unfortunately, much of the conversation around Carney’s wealth appears to be a diversion from more important discussions about policy and leadership.
At the same time, the Conservative Party seems reluctant to address the issue of Pierre Poilievre’s own wealth and investments, particularly in the oil industry. The question that needs to be asked is whether Poilievre, should he become Prime Minister, would make policy decisions that benefit Canadians or those that align with his own financial interests. So far, he has been reluctant to clarify his position on this matter.
Pierre Poilievre’s Campaign Struggles
As the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre faces mounting criticism for his approach to the election campaign. Poilievre’s rhetoric—relying heavily on simplistic catchphrases like “Axe the Tax” and “Carbon Tax Carney”—has not resonated well with the electorate. These slogans, while memorable, are devoid of substantive policy and fail to engage voters in meaningful discussions about the country’s future.
Even some within Poilievre’s own party are beginning to question his campaign tactics. Kory Teneycke, a respected Conservative strategist with a history of advising high-profile politicians such as Stephen Harper and Doug Ford, has publicly suggested that Poilievre must pivot his strategy. Teneycke argues that Poilievre’s approach, which mirrors the combative style of former U.S. President Donald Trump, is not connecting with Canadians.
Poilievre’s adherence to a hard-right conservative agenda, including proposals for mandatory life sentences for certain crimes, has drawn comparisons to Stephen Harper’s controversial tough-on-crime policies. However, many of these policies were struck down by the Supreme Court of Canada, which ruled them unconstitutional. It’s unclear whether Poilievre is aware of this precedent or if he simply hopes that voters have forgotten. Regardless, his efforts to reintroduce such policies seem out of step with the majority of Canadians.
Political observers, including the Globe and Mail’s Lawrence Martin, have noted that Poilievre’s approach is increasingly being seen as “petulant” and “juvenile.” His inability to pivot and offer substantive policy proposals could prove to be his undoing.
The Carney-Poilievre Showdown
With only weeks remaining in the campaign, Canadians are clearly paying closer attention to the election, and the direction of the race is becoming clearer. While it is still too early to make definitive predictions, the momentum seems to be in the Liberals' favor. Mark Carney’s calm, experienced leadership stands in stark contrast to Poilievre’s combative and divisive approach, which may ultimately leave him struggling to gain the traction he needs for a successful campaign.
The Trump Factor: A Complicated Relationship
Beyond domestic politics, Canada’s relationship with the United States remains a key issue. Recently, Prime Minister Mark Carney had a phone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump, initiated by the White House. While Trump’s public statements about the conversation were respectful, I remain cautious. Trump’s history of reneging on agreements, particularly when it comes to trade, has made it difficult for Canada to rely on the United States as a stable partner.
The renegotiated North American trade deal, known as CUSMA in Canada and USMCA in the United States, has been a source of tension. Despite Trump’s initial praise for the agreement when his administration signed it, he has since criticized it, calling it “the worst trade deal” the U.S. has ever been involved in. His inability to honour international agreements should serve as a cautionary tale for any future dealings with the U.S. government under Trump’s influence.
The Stakes: A Pivotal Election
As we approach the election, it is clear that this is one of the most consequential moments in Canadian political history. This election is not just about the next administration—it is about the direction our country will take for years to come. The decisions made at the ballot box will shape Canada’s future, and it is essential that all Canadians remain informed and engaged.
I encourage everyone to stay informed, to critically evaluate the candidates and their policies, and to exercise your right to vote. The future of Canada depends on it.
Stay engaged, stay informed, and make your voice heard on April 28th.
FURTHER READING:
Top Conservative strategist says Poilievre needs to urgently pivot or he will lose
The book on Pierre Poilievre: He’s ‘an angry teenager in the body of a grown man’
CSIS alleges India organized support for Poilievre’s 2022 Conservative leadership bid
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